Thursday, October 21, 2004

Rove to Kerry: I'm Going to Win, So Vote for the Winner


Everyone loves a winner, and there is a demographic that will simply vote for the candidate that they perceive will be the winner of the election. You know this; you've won many senate races, and you know how momentum works.

Starting October 26, start seeding your low and mid-level staffers, bloggers, and friendly political analysts with a "conventional wisdom" (CW) that the word on the street is that all of those new voter registration drives, that insiders see a large Kerry victory on November 2.

Use independent sources like that show your electoral lead, insider polling numbers that show promising statistics from key battleground states, as well as polls of demographics like women, college-educated citizens, and corporate executives.

Make sure to back up this seeded CW with facts that support the seeding, and it will grow legs.

This strategy has a two-pronged effect that will ensure that you will win:

1. It will force the Republicans to spend the last week of the race fighting "ridiculous Kerry-created spin." The result? Endless arguments about you winning will dominate the cable news.

2. It will influence the "back the winner" demographic. Granted, this is not a huge demo, but in the battleground, you and I know that every vote is going to count. Plus, if you look at polls during the last week in prior elections, you can see that snowballing occurs as people begin to realize that it's time to make a decision. It'd much better for you to have that "winner" CW during this last-minute decision time.

This is not policy, and this is not strategy. This is simple gamesmanship: Leaking to America that you are going to win will help you win.